2026: AI Replaces Labor — A Constraint-Led Macro Regime Map

A lot of 2026 macro debate is framed as “soft landing or recession.”
I think that’s the wrong question. The more useful question is: where does the system externalize adjustment—prices, profits, or people?

This report treats the economy as a set of constraints (balance sheets, funding conditions, bottlenecks), not a set of narratives. The working hypothesis—meant to be tested, not asserted—is that 2026 looks like a slowdown + margin-defense year, where labor becomes the shock absorber and capex concentrates in productivity tech (AI/automation) because that’s where unit economics still clear.

What’s inside (12 sections, exhibit-driven)

• One-page regime map using Atlanta Fed GDPNow (growth + composition) and a cross-asset snapshot
• The Pettis lens: adjustment via wages vs profits, households vs corporates, tradables vs non-tradables
• Why liquidity is selective (not “broad easing”) and why that sustains dispersion
• The K-economy as allocation mechanics (scale, financing advantage, pricing power, productivity substitution)
• AI replacing labor as an earnings/margins story: adoption is uneven, but diffusion is accelerating (Gallup + sector adoption)
• Bottlenecks: energy/compute/real-world deployment friction and what that implies for concentration
• Prices as information: what leadership in sectors and cross-asset is quietly saying about 2026
• Policy regime: tariffs/industrial policy and second-order inflation dynamics
• Rates as a constraint (not a variable): why the level matters mostly through hurdle rates and dispersion
• Crypto vs gold: hedge vs liquidity beta—and how to tell which is dominating
• Scenarios + signposts: the short list of things that would falsify the base case
• Positioning implications: principles, not prescriptions

Note: This is research and framework work, not financial advice.